Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) witnessed another day of deaths and devastation on Saturday as three more people were killed as a result of landslides and floods in Swat while authorities in Nowshera renewed their call for evacuations amid a “very high flood” in the Kabul River.
Meanwhile, a rain emergency remained in place in several areas of the province in the wake of unprecedented rains that pushed most of the country into a crisis.
Today’s developments
- Death toll from floods, landslides in Swat reaches 15 as 3 more killed
- KP CM’s helicopter deployed to rescue stranded tourists, deliver food in isolated areas
- Evacuations under way in several KP areas amid ‘very high flood’ in Nowshera, where the water level in the Kabul River has risen above 300,000 cusecs
- 15 tourists reported stranded in Lower Dir
- PM Shehbaz reaches Sujawal district in Sindh to review relief and rescue efforts
- Army chief to visit flood-hit areas of Sindh today as military troops accelerate relief operations across the country
- KP CM to visit flood-affected areas in Swat, Lower Dir today
- Damage to optical fibre cables and power outages affecting internet services in several areas of KP, says PTA
- Gilgit-Baltistan suffers financial losses amounting to Rs10 billion during floods, says information minister
At present, more than half of Pakistan is under water and millions of people have been rendered homeless as a result of flash flooding generated by abnormal monsoon rains which have entered their eighth spell with no signs of subsiding.
According to the latest estimates, nearly 1,000 people, including 300 children, have lost their lives because of rains and resulting flooding that has impacted nearly 33 million people – almost 15 per cent of the country’s population.
Deaths in Swat, tourists reported stranded in Lower Dir
A day after a rain emergency was declared in Swat, the district’s additional deputy commissioner, Abrar Wazir, said on Saturday that landslides and floods had claimed a total of 15 lives in different areas.
On Friday, 12 deaths in the district were linked to rains, floods and related incidents.
The additional deputy commissioner said in a statement today that roads spread over 130 kilometres had been damaged and 15 bridges were completely destroyed due to floods so far, while over 100 houses and around 50 hotels and restaurants were also destroyed.
The official said a team had been constituted to estimate the extent of further damage.Later in the day, KP Secretary of Information and Public Relations Arshad Khan said that over 500,000 cusecs of water had flooded the province.
“The government has started rescue and relief efforts in all affected areas, while the work on the restoration of road infrastructure is going on on an emergency basis,” he told media persons in Swat.
Arshad also said that the helicopter used by KP CM had been deployed for the flood operations. “It will be used to rescue tourists stranded across the province and to provide food items to isolated areas.”
The government has further sought more helicopters from the Pakistan Army, the official added.
KP Chief Minister Mahmood Khan will also visit flood-hit areas of Swat and Lower Dir today, a tweet from PTI’s official Twitter account said.
He will assess the damage caused by the floods and overview the relief efforts underway.
Ahead of the CM’sDawn.comists were stranded in the Kumrat valley.
He said the Malakand commissioner was sending a helicopter to shift the tourists elsewhere.
There were reports of several other tourists being stranded in Lower Dir as well. Separately, officials of Rescue 1122 told Dawn.com that seven people stranded near the Ranolia River in Kohistan have been rescued.
‘Very high flood’ in Nowshera
Meanwhile, Nowshera Deputy Commissioner (DC) Mir Reza Ozgen renewed his call for the relocation of the district’s residents to safer places as flow in Kabul River rose above 250,000 cusecs, resulting in a “very high flood” in the water body.
According to DawnNewsTV, the flooding caused widespread devastation in the district, submerging several villages.
The unusual heavy monsoon rains and flash floods are initially estimated to cost Pakistan’s economy over $4 billion in the current fiscal year as the calamity has badly hurt agricultural activities in Sindh and Balochistan. While it is early to assess the actual impact, Pakistan, where agriculture has a 23% share in gross domestic product (GDP), can remain highly vulnerable in the aftermath of the floods.
Repercussions may include higher imports, compromise on exports and rising inflation, which will undermine efforts of the government to tackle the macro headwinds. “Based on our preliminary estimates, the current account deficit may increase by $4.4 billion (1% of GDP) – assuming no counter-measures are taken, while around 30% of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) basket is exposed to the threat of higher prices,” said JS Global Research in a report on Friday.
The situation may force the government to make additional import of cotton worth $2.6 billion, wheat worth $900 million and the country will lose textile exports of around $1 billion. This comes to around $4.5 billion (1.08% of GDP) in current fiscal year 2022-23. Owing to the flash floods, the consumers are expected to face supply deficit of household groceries such as onion, tomato and chilli.
The worst affected crop is cotton. Farmers produced 8 million bales in the previous fiscal year, but now they will again have a poor crop, like previous years, amid heavy rainfall in Sindh. “Cotton sowing has reportedly been destroyed to a large extent (in Sindh), it said. “Assuming the country requires import of cotton to fulfill 80% of demand this year, the import bill will likely exceed $4.4 billion (+144% year-on-year) in FY23.
On the other hand, any unavailability of imported raw cotton or other unprocessed textile will negatively impact the country’s textile exports,” the research house said. Rice is another crop that is expected to endure massive damage in the ongoing floods. It is among the few crops where the area under cultivation has increased significantly in the recent past (+20% in two years). It contributes $2.5 billion in annual exports. “Damage to rice crops will result in loss of exports, in addition to a slight reduction in GDP growth and higher CPI inflation.”
As water from the flash floods is believed to take two to three months to disappear, the aftermath is likely to result in delay in wheat and edible oil seed sowing. Delay in wheat plantation will be a double blow as many farmers have already switched from wheat to edible oil seed cultivation. Moreover, the post-flood situation is also expected to negatively impact the yield of upcoming wheat crops. With the delay in sowing and higher wheat import prices, the import of 15% of wheat demand of 30 million tons may take its import bill to $1.7 billion in FY23.
Alongside crops, more than 500,000 livestock have reportedly perished in the floods. This will add to the burden on the rural people, already reeling from higher diesel and fertiliser prices, and will lead to the shortage of milk supply. Moreover, the shortage of livestock, coupled with the probability of disease outbreak among the cattle, can also cause the scarcity of meat. Besides, tomato prices have already started increasing due to the monsoon.
This together with wheat, edible oil, milk and meat hold 18% weight in the CPI basket. It poses the risk of high food inflation (at 28%; 13-year high). “Any risk to food security, shortages and bottlenecks in supply chain will cause an increase in our existing FY23 CPI estimate of 21%.” “We expect fertiliser, banks, tractors and oil marketing companies to be among the sectors that will be negatively impacted by the flash floods.