In terms of gross incremental import costs, India was the second-most affected importing nation after China. However, when measured against the economic impact, India’s net increased cost across fossil fuels was estimated at 14.4 billion dollars, equivalent to around 1.4 days of national income or 0.38 per cent of the country’s GDP
According to CREA, India’s net increased cost for crude oil alone stood at 20.5 billion dollars
India had the third-highest incremental cost among major fossil-fuel importers, after China at 35 billion dollars and the European Union at 78 billion dollars. The analysis covered LNG, oil products and seaborne crude oil.
CREA calculated the increased cost by comparing the prices importers actually paid with those projected by futures markets before the conflict-related strikes.
Globally, fossil-fuel importers paid an estimated 330 billion dollars more for seaborne crude oil, oil products and LNG in the six months following the US-Iran war, compared with pre-war futures market projections.
Crude oil accounted for the largest share of the increased bill at $164.1 billion, followed by diesel and petrol at 73.8 billion dollars, petrol at 35.7 billion dollars, LNG at 38 billion dollars across both basins and jet fuel at 20 billion dollars.
The gross additional cost estimate does not include the extra revenue earned by fossil-fuel exporting countries.
According to CREA, the fighting triggered the biggest prolonged shock to oil prices since the Gulf War in 1990. Low- and middle-income fossil-fuel importing countries were particularly vulnerable, with the typical country in this group paying roughly twice as much relative to GDP as the typical high-income country.