US intelligence indicates China is preparing weapons shipment to Iran amid fragile ceasefire, sources say

US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.

Donald Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping in a letter not to give Iran weapons, and Xi responded that China was not supplying Tehran, the US president told Fox Business Network in an interview that aired on Wednesday.

Trump, in the interview taped on Tuesday, did not say when the letters were exchanged. Last week, he threatened countries with an immediate 50% tariff if they supplied Iran with weapons.

"I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that, essentially, he's not doing that," Trump told FBN's "Mornings with Maria" program.

He also said he did not expect shifts in the global oil market over the war on Iran and changes in Venezuela to impact the dynamics of his planned meeting with Xi next month. "He's somebody that needs oil. We don't," Trump said.

US President Donald Trump arrives to deliver an address to the nation about the Iran war at the White House in Washington, DC, US April 1, 2026. Alex Brandon/Pool via REUTERS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump also wrote that he was "permanently opening" the Strait of Hormuz and China was very happy about it.

"I am doing it for them, also - And the World," Trump wrote, adding: "President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks."

It was not immediately clear what Trump meant as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for clarification on the president's post.

Forty-five days after Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared the strait closed, effectively shutting in about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, transit through the waterway remains uncertain - even with the two-week ceasefire now in place. Traffic is at only a fraction of the 130-plus daily crossings seen before the war, sources said on Tuesday.

Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week, after they ended over the weekend without any agreement. But the US has also enacted a blockade of shipping leaving Iranian ports that its military said on Wednesday has completely halted trade going in and out of the country by sea.

It would be a provocative move considering Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire agreement that paused the war between Iran and the US earlier this week. President Donald Trump is also set to visit China early next month for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The intelligence also underscores how Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.

Two of the sources told CNN there are indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their true origin.

The systems Beijing is preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US military aircraft throughout the course of the five-week war and could again if the ceasefire falls apart.

Asked by CNN on Saturday about the US intelligence and whether he has spoken to Xi about the issue, Trump indicated that Beijing would face consequences if it sent weapons to Tehran.

“If China does that, China will have big problems, OK?” he said as he left the White House for Florida. Trump did not say whether he has spoken to Xi.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said, “China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue.”

“As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We urge the U.S. side to refrain from making baseless allegations, maliciously drawing connections, and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will do more to help de-escalate tensions.”

Earlier this week, an embassy spokesperson told CNN that since the US-Israel-Iran war began, Beijing had “been working to help bring about a ceasefire and end to the conflict.”

Trump indicated during a press conference on Monday that the F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran last week was hit by a “handheld shoulder missile, [a] heat-seeking missile,” and Tehran said it had used a “new” air defense system to hit the jet without providing more details. It’s unclear whether that system was Chinese manufactured.

Shipping MANPADS to Iran would mark an escalation in China’s support for the country since the US and Israel launched their joint military campaign in February.

Chinese companies have continued to sell the Iranians sanctioned dual-use technology that enables Tehran to keep building weapons and enhance its navigation systems, sources said, but the Chinese government directly transferring weapons systems would mark a new level of assistance.

Trump is expected to meet with Xi next month in Beijing, and the White House said Wednesday that high-level talks had taken place between the US and China as Iran ceasefire negotiations played out earlier this week.

One of the sources familiar with the intelligence said China sees no real strategic value in overtly entering the conflict and trying to protect Iran against the US and Israel, which they know would be unwinnable. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a continued friend to Iran — whose oil it heavily depends upon — while remaining outwardly neutral so it can maintain deniability after the war is over.

Sources said the Chinese could also make the argument that air defense systems are defensive rather than offensive in nature, differentiating their support from that of Russia. Moscow has been providing support to the Iranian regime throughout the course of the war in the form of intelligence sharing that has helped Iran proactively target US troops and assets in the Middle East, CNN has reported.

Iran has long had established military and economic relationships with both China and Russia. Iran has aided Russia extensively in its war on Ukraine through the provision of Shahed drones and also sells China the bulk of its sanctioned oil.

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