The IMF in its report titled, “Country report, Request For A Stand-By Arrangement,” noted that the country’s external financing need would be $30.4 billion in the fiscal year 2024-25.
The Fund stated that the SBA programme is fully financed but with exceptionally high risks. Financing commitments from bilateral and multilateral partners will help cover public gross external financing needs in the fiscal year 2024 and the reserve position at end-fiscal year 2024 is consistent with programme objectives
Bilateral creditors are expected to maintain their exposure to Pakistan in line with program commitments and there are commitments for $3.7 billion of additional financing expected from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These together with commitments from multilateral institutions, including the Islamic Development Bank, and other pledges at the Geneva conference provide the necessary financing assurances.
Nonetheless, financing risks remain exceptionally high, arising from large public sector external rollover needs, a sizable current account deficit, a difficult external environment for Eurobond issuance given recent downgrades and high spreads, and limited reserve buffers to help cover the financing needs in case of delays in scheduled inflows.
The report noted that Pakistan’s capacity to repay the Fund is subject to significant risks and would critically depend on policy implementation and timely external financing. The Fund’s exposure reaches SDR 6,123 million (or 301 percent of quota and about 108 percent of projected gross reserves at end-September 2023) with purchases linked to the request.
With the completion of all purchases under the arrangement, the Fund’s exposure would peak at SDR 6,673 million in March 2024 (or 329 percent of quota and about 109 percent of projected gross reserves at end-March 2024). Exceptionally high risks—notably from delayed adoption of reforms, high public debt and gross financing needs, low gross reserves and SBP’s sizeable net FX derivative position, the recent decline in inflows, and sociopolitical factors—could jeopardize policy implementation and erode repayment capacity and debt sustainability.
Restoring external viability is critical to ensure Pakistan’s capacity to repay the Fund, and hinges on strong policy implementation, including beyond the proposed SBA. In the absence of the proposed SBA, the capacity to repay the Fund would be strained. Uncertainty about global economic and financial conditions, amid several successive shocks, adds to these risks. Adequate execution of firm and credible financing assurances is an essential mitigating factor.
The Pakistani authorities have stated that they have secured adequate financing from our international partners to support our economic reform programme. Current projections suggest that with the policies outlined in this MEFP, the gross external financing needs for fiscal year 2024 will amount to approximately $28.4 billion (including the current account), of which about $14.5 billion is amortization to multilateral and bilateral official as well as commercial creditors.
To close this gap, we have secured $10 billion as rollovers and refinancing of maturing debt and $5.6 billion in additional financing commitments from bilateral, multilateral, and commercial partners, including some of the funds pledged at the time of the combined seventh and eighth EFF reviews, at the International Conference held in Geneva in early 2023, and other sources. In line with program financing commitments, key bilateral creditors will at least maintain their exposure to Pakistan, the authorities added.Schools and colleges were closed after record monsoon rains led to massive waterlogging, road caves-in, collapsed homes and gridlocked traffic in large parts of northern India, killing more than 150 people over two weeks, officials said Wednesday.
Now Patiala ,Delhi and other cities are in the grip of heavy rains.Two people were killed as roof of a home caved in ,Very heavy rain in Patiala and adjoining areas on Wednesday morning led to a flood-like situation in many areas as sewerage lines and drains choked flooding many houses.
Learning no lessons from the last week’s heavy downpour that inundated many areas in the city, the Municipal Corporation has again failed to clear the drains and sewerage lines leading to flood-like situation in many parts.
Residents in many colonies complained of water entering their houses due to choked sewerage lines.
“Despite the past week’s experience when we suffered losses worth lakhs, the corporation has been busy with flooded areas and has failed to provide basic amenities to other parts of the city causing flooding in many colonies like ours,” claimed Police Lines resident Rajesh Kumar.
Municipal Commissioner Aditya Uppal said they had sent teams to clear the sewerage pipes. “We are monitoring the situation and following rain for the past four hours, water has accumulated. After the sewerage connections are cleared, there should be no water accumulation in the city areas,” he said.
At least 158 people died, 42 of them in the past five days, and more than 140 were injured in the worst hit-mountainous Himachal Pradesh state where cars, buses, bridges and houses were swept away by swirling flood waters, a state government statement said. The region is nearly 500 kilometers (310 miles) north of New Delhi.
Twelve people have died of rain-related incidents since Wednesday in Uttar Pradesh state, said Shishir Singh, a state government spokesman.
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Nine of them drowned, two died after being struck by lightning and one was killed by a snake bite, Singh said.
One person died in New Delhi and four were killed in the Indian-controlled section of Kashmir, officials said.
Authorities used helicopters to rescue nearly 300 people, mostly tourists, who were stranded in the Chandertal area in Himachal Pradesh state since Saturday. They included seven sick people who were airlifted on Tuesday, the government said.
Nearly 170 houses have collapsed and another 600 were partially damaged by heavy rains and landslides in the state, the state emergency operation center said.
In New Delhi, residential areas close to the Jamuna River were flooded, submerging roads, cars and homes, leading to the evacuation of thousands of people from low-lying areas.
Dozens of cars were blocked by sheets of water, throwing the movement of vehicles into disarray during the morning rush hour in New Delhi on Thursday.
The water level of the Jamuna River flowing through the Indian capital topped a 40-year record and reached 207.71 meters (681.5 feet) on Wednesday evening, according to a statement by the office of New Delhi’s top elected official, Arvind Kejriwal.
Authorities have moved nearly 30,000 people to relief camps and also converted some schools into relief camps in the badly hit areas, the statement said. Hundreds of people with their livestock also have taken shelter under overhead road bridges in the eastern parts of the Indian capital.
Rajesh Singh, a factory owner, was stuck with his motorbike for hours with floodwater blocking both sides of the road near the river bank. “I have never seen anything like this in the past 22 years.”
“New Delhi hasn’t seen a lot of rain in the past two days, but the river level has risen due to abnormally high levels of water discharge from Hathni Kund barrage in neighboring Haryana state,” Kejriwal said
India’s weather agency has forecast more heavy rains in northern parts in the coming days. It said monsoon rains across the country have already brought about 2% more rainfall than normal.
India regularly witnesses severe floods during the monsoon season, which runs between June and September and brings most of South Asia’s annual rainfall. The rains are crucial for rain-fed crops planted during the season but often cause extensive damage.
Scientists say monsoons are becoming more erratic because of climate change and global warming, leading to frequent landslides and flash floods in India’s Himalayan north.
